Thursday, October 30, 2008

Getting Naked in Short Selling


Getting naked in short selling from Marketplace on Vimeo.

Best Economics books

Stephen Kinsella thinks Heilbroner's Worldly Philosophers, is a great introductory book on economics.

Thomas Sowell
thinks otherwise;

“..its whole way of thinking leads the student away from economic analysis and away from intellectual development generally.” (p. 142, A Personal Odyssey ).

Assorted

Ukraine's Financial Ordeal

Lecture on Climate Change

Welfare gain of lower gas prices

Levitt on the banking crisis and mark to market accounting

How will the Chancellor repay debt?

If behavioral economists devised financial regulations…


How to Use the Enterprise Surveys

History podcast of the day

Simon Bolivar;

In 1804 a young man from Venezuela stood on a small hill in Rome and made a grand declaration. He said, “I swear before you, I swear before the God of my fathers, I swear by my fathers, I swear by my honour, I swear by my country that I will not rest, body or soul, until I have broken the chains with which Spanish power oppresses us.”

His name was Simón Bolívar and over the next 30 years he made good on his promise, so much so that his name is synonymous with the removal of Spanish rule from South America. He has become more icon than man, a romantic hero and revolutionary symbol, but what did he actually do to achieve such fame and was it the power of ideas that drove him to success or the fortune of events?

Chain of Blame


Chain of Blame: How Wall Street Caused the Mortgage and Credit Crisis

Here's author's blog.

Budgets and weather

Quote of the Day;

"People like to talk about the weather so that they can avoid talking about what they need to tell you,” Mr. Paterson said at a news conference in Manhattan on Tuesday, as wind and cold rain battered the city. “Imagine outside, the conditions that exist today in New York City are a balmy sunny afternoon in Hawaii. Because that’s what it would compare to — how bad the budget is that I’m about to tell you.”

-Add Some Zeros and Shake Well: A Recipe for a State in Crisis

Monday, October 20, 2008

Photo of the Day


At Bretton Woods, N.H., in 1944, the United States Treasury secretary, Henry Morgenthau Jr., left, conferred with the British economist John Maynard Keynes about the rules for the postwar economic order


Related;

Keynes!

We Forgot Everything Keynes Taught Us

"The outstanding fact is the extreme precariousness of the basis of knowledge on which our estimates of prospective yield have to be made," Keynes wrote in his great book "The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money" in 1936. We disguise this uncertainty from ourselves by assuming that the future will be like the past, that existing opinion correctly sums up future prospects, and by copying what everyone else is doing. But any view of the future based on "so flimsy a foundation" is liable to "sudden and violent changes. The practice of calmness and immobility, of certainty and security suddenly breaks down. New fears and hopes will, without warning, take charge of human conduct . . . the market will be subject to waves of optimistic and pessimistic sentiment, which are unreasoning yet in a sense legitimate where no solid basis exists for a reasonable calculation." Keynes accused economics of being itself "one of these pretty, polite techniques which tries to deal with the present by abstracting from the fact that we know very little about the future."

Saturday, October 11, 2008

More explanations on sub-prime crisis

IMF Seminar on Financial Turmoil

An interesting and timely seminar from IMF;

Do the unprecedented events in financial markets and the policy responses seen recently signal a turning point towards restoring global financial stability? If not, what would be appropriate responses? Are more joint effort efforts the international level required?

How long will the growth slowdown persist and will it worsen as a consequence of recent events in financial markets? What policies or forces will drive the recovery, and what form will it take? Will commodity prices escalate as soon as a recovery begins?

Emerging markets have been affected by the transmission of financial market turmoil in the U.S. and have also faced increased inflation pressures. What additional steps might be required to minimize additional spillover effects?

Looking ahead, how is the global financial services industry likely to be re-shaped? Is the era of financial engineering and disintermediation of banks over? What should be the future objectives of financial regulation and how should regulatory frameworks change? Should the concept of national versus multilateral regulation be rethought given financial globalization? If so, how?

Is the Government making things worse?

Authors and Books

The Time Paradox: The New Psychology of Time That Will Change Your Life


The Unfinished Game: Pascal, Fermat, and the Seventeenth-Century Letter that Made the World Modern


Barack Obama is Your New Bicycle


Designing Design

September Issue of The Region magazine


Include interviews with Christina and David Romer, The “Monster” of Chestnut Street, etc.

The Advisors Debate

Austan Golsbee vs Ike Brannon

Friday, October 10, 2008

Book recommendation

The Art of Strategy: A Game Theorist's Guide to Success in Business and Life
by Avinash K. Dixit , Barry J. Nalebuff

Assorted Podcasts

Do schoolchildren and students know how to research?

Population control
Are you worried about the future of the environment, or war, or hordes of refugees? The solution is not to manipulate population growth. Past results have been tragic, and ineffectual. Historian Professor Matthew Connelly of Columbia University proposes some alternatives.

Cloud computing

Remittances - flying money

1929 Revisited


Carbon Emission Trading: A way forward or the Emperor's new clothes?

A future for Belgium?

Since national elections fifteen months ago, Belgium has been in the grip of a profound political crisis, prompting speculation that the country might split. What has caused this political stalemate and what lies ahead for this deeply divided country?

Inside the minds of murderers and sex offenders

Pius XII, Hitler, and the Jews

The reading brain


The 2008 Presidential Election: Can the State Polls be Trusted?


Nudge: improving decisions about wealth, health and happiness

Commodity Prices, Capital Flows and the Financing of Investment
China`s reform as an indigenous institutional innovation

Skills, Rights and Resources in the East Asian Path to Development

The War for Wealth: The True Story of Globalization

Dixit's New Book Advocates Game Theory in Finance

Author Levitt Says Game-Theory Relates to Everyday Life

Schelling Says U.S. Should Encourage Investor Confidence

Morgan's Greenlaw Sees Increased Treasury Bond Supply

Skeptics on skeptical thinking

Good bugs gone bad
Science journalist Dr Peter Lavelle from ABC Health Online looks at the history of disease and some of the terrible epidemics that have swept through societies throughout history.

Paracetamol plus ibuprofen for treating fever in children

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Recently on Charlie Rose

Warren Buffet

Dominique Strauss-Kahn

Alan Blinder

Martin Feldstein

World Economic Outlook

IMF's WEO is released.

Assorted Financial Crisis Podcasts

Bill Poole Calls Fed Move to Buy Commercial Paper `Positive'

Michael Mussa Says Panic in Markets `Is the Clear Problem'


Stanford's Hall Calls U.S. Slowdown `Modern Recession'


Lazear Says U.S. Taking `Aggressive' Approach to Crisis

Brookings's Baily Says Crisis Will Take `Several Years' to Pass


Paul Krugman Sees U.S. Economy's Downturn `Accelerating'

Brandeis's Mann Says U.S. Needs to Recapitalize Banks

Varvares Says NABE Sees Better Housing Market in 2009

Skidelsky Says Governments Must Lead in Market Crisis


Roubini Sees `Silent' Run on Banks, Urges `Triage'

Central banks ‘key’ to stop recession

Crisis on Wall St.
A panel of Princeton economists chaired by Hyun Shin, Professor of Economics and associate chair of the Department of Economics. Panelists: Markus Brunnermeier, Professor of Economics; Harrison Hong, Professor in Finance; Paul Krugman, professor of economics and international affairs; Alan Blinder, Professor of Economics and Public Affairs and co‐director of the Center for Economic Policy Studies.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Campaign is getting heated


KEATING ECONOMICS: John McCain & The Making of a Financial Crisis

More on Fair Value Accounting

In light of the uncertainties about valuation highlighted by the 2007–08 market turbulence, this chapter provides an empirical examination of the potential procyclicality that fair value accounting (FVA) methods could introduce in bank balance sheets. The chapter finds that, while weaknesses in the FVA methodology may introduce unintended volatility and procyclicality, thus requiring some enhancements, it is still the preferred accounting framework for financial institutions. It concludes that capital buffers, forward-looking provisioning, and more refined disclosures can help to mitigate the procyclicality of FVA. The analysis presented does not preclude that there are other dimensions to FVA that are relevant and that, after further scrutiny, may indicate the need for additional refinements to the FVA methodology. Going forward, the valuation approaches for accounting, prudential measures, and risk management need to be reconciled and will require adjustments on the part of all parties.

-Fair Value Accounting and Procyclicality, Global Financial Stability Report

Stiglitz on Iraq War

Assorted on National Accounts

Latin America: Highlights from the Implementation of the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA)

Understanding National Accounts

Hot, Flat, and Crowded

Thomas Friedman on Riz Khan Show;

Sunday, October 5, 2008

Tech Tips you need

  • You can use Google to do math for you. Just type the equation, like 23*7+15/3=, and hit Enter.
  • The number of megapixels does not determine a camera’s picture quality; that’s a marketing myth. The sensor size is far more important. (Use Google to find it. For example, search for “sensor size Nikon D90.”)
  • When someone sends you some shocking e-mail and suggests that you pass it on, don’t. At least not until you’ve first confirmed its truth at snopes.com, the Internet’s authority on e-mailed myths. This includes get-rich schemes, Microsoft/AOL cash giveaways, and–especially lately–nutty scare-tactic messages about our Presidential candidates
  • Google is also a units-of-measurement and currency converter. Type “teaspoons in 1.3 gallons,” for example, or “euros in 17 dollars.” Click Search to see the answer.


See the full list.

Assorted

Suspending Mark-To-Market Accounting Won't Solve Anything

Mark to What Market? The SEC Made the Right Call

Fair-value accounting becomes a political issue

Podcasts

Arnold Kling on Freddie and Fannie and the Recent History of the U.S. Housing Market

Skidelsky Says Governments Must Lead in Market Crisis

Kasman Says Bailout Won't Get Economy `Out of the Woods'

Rogoff on Zimbabwe Inflation

Zimbabwe's Hyperinflation Poses Unique Challenges

Plato and a Platypus Walk Into a Bar

Something lite.